Re: Creating an Upset

The anonymous flamewad, Mickmars, the Tawana
Brawley of quizbowl, writes:

<<It is in
fact, quite easy to create a packet upon which the top
team in each bracket will lose. Just as an excercise,
conjure one up yourself. it can be easily done, even if
we have no expectations and foreknowledge. In rea
tournaments we have some knowledge of teams playing,
expectations as to their placement and data on their
performance.>>

<<1 Penn indicated that it expected Chicago,
Michigan, Maryland and Illinois to be the top teams by
placing them in separate brackets.>>

It
takes but one upset by the second best team in the
bracket to keep these teams from ending up as a one seed,
if that other team wins the rest of its games. There
is no guarantee that the pre-seeds will hold
up.

<<2. Penn could get a sense of what these teams
considered a "good" packet by analyzing the packets that
each of these teams submitted, and had two months to
do so.>>

This implies that the teams
turned in similar packets, that they turned in packets
on time so as to allow reasonable time for such
analysis, and that someone bothered do something about it.


<<3. Altering format and content need not create a
rondomized occurrence.>>

SNIP THE LENGTHY
FOOTBALL ANALOGY

Okay, this is the silliest sports
analogy since Nozick's Wilt Chamberlain
example.

1) Why is the 4 seed probably the best "Sunny"
team?
2) The round robin could not be described as 100%
"Winter Weather."
3) Having had access to and having
analyzed the round earlier today, the packet, with a
couple of minor deviations, fit the distribution as
written. There is a lot of wiggle room, even within that
distribution. Those deviations were: only two visual arts
questions, with the third's place taken by a music question;
a third religion question at the expense of
philosophy. The literature was slanted towards poetry and
drama and away from prose, in addition to the
aforementioned children's lit overload. An advertising question
was considered business current events. Two religion
questions where Christian related. The your choice section
was half trashy.

Most of these deviations did
not come into play, at least in the game I played in.
Presumably, these faults were taken care of by shoving the
questions to the back of the pack. 

<<More
concretely:

Suppose I see that Teams 1-4 prefer less academic and
shorter questions, and write about current international
events. i simply write long academic questions, increase
question length, and focus on domestic business in my CE.
Suddenly, these teams are at a disadvantage regardless of
their opponents. >>

If domestic business
is a reasonable part of current events, and if those
four teams all write on international events, it is
possible that business CE is under-represented, and it is
reasonable to make up for it in other rounds.

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.4.0: Sat 12 Feb 2022 12:30:42 AM EST EST