Can you handle it?

theaug37 <*no_reply_at_yahoogroups.com*> · Tue, 25 Feb 2003 08:06:16 -0000

A good part of me thinks quizbowl is fickle, unpredictable and quirky.
 And I agree with Paul and can't say this is a "sport."  I think it's
much closer to something somewhere between Bridge and Poker, where
skill plays a very significant role, but the element of chance cannot
be ignored.  

To put it in concrete terms.  At last year's ICT while watching the
Div I final, I noticed that I could get two tossups faster than anyone
else who were playing at the time (Michigan A and Virginia; the two
TUs were Countee Cullen and Giotto).  Obviously this does not have any
independent meaning; on any given tossup, someone might know it faster
than you.  However, let's say that due to some great aligning of the
planets, the given NAQT packet contains 24/28 tossups that I can get
faster than any other quizbowl player I'm playing against.  Sure, I
will win, but does that mean I'm the best player in the world, or did
I just get lucky?  Clearly, the answer leans closer towards luck more
than skill, since I'm not that good.  

Now, take this to the level of a whole team.  As seen by the dearth of
"perfect games," even novice teams can get a tossup or two off of an
elite team.  Therefore, if things work out correctly, it is
conceivable that a novice team can beat a national-champion caliber
team (remote, but there is a chance, still)

Of course, I'm inflating the element of chance here somewhat, but the
basic premise of quizbowl, in my opinion, is to make that chance favor
you by having a greater subset of knowledge than the next guy.  

Assuming that premise, it is possible in theory, to quantify a certain
statistical probability of team A beating team B.  It seems to me that
the differences in opinion on crowning a champion are essentially
where each person wants to set the acceptable level of deviation.  

So say that Team A has 60% chance of winning against Team B on packets
with a random, ideal distribution of questions within each category
and the packet as a whole.  If enough games are played, the statistics
will bear itself out, but in a one game playoff, it's pretty
ambiguous.  Does that make a having a one game playoff evil or unfair?
 Did the "lesser" team not deserve to win?  I think the answer lies in
what you prefer; there's no fairness to question.  Certainly it is
possible that in a best 2/3 or a round robin would not bear out the
theoretical advantage of Team A; it would just happen less.  

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't believe in much of this
"gamesmanship" and analogies to sports in terms of "rising to the
occasion" and such.  There's a much more tangible statistical presence
in quizbowl such that sports analogies might not be the most ideal
model.  In addition, I think much of this argument is silly (obviously
a format war in a new guise), since market demands will determine all
these things.  Come on, the reason single elim is around is because it
doesn't have universal hatred among quizbowl players, despite what
some might say.  Everything has its place; otherwise it would die out
naturally.  

-Augustine-