Re: Winning versus scoring (1 of 2)

The opinions below are my own - not those of my
teammates or of the University.

Andy - 

Well,
while I sympathize with your reaction (and personally,
if I were the one making the decision, I would
probably want to examine the individual game scores),
there are problems with all methods of determining
qualifiers. For example, there is a clear question of how to
determine what a good or bad win/loss is. Many teams have
different players from tournament to tournament, so it
would be unrealistic to decide ahead of time that some
teams are better than others and to use that for the
purpose of determining the bids. After all, if we could a
priori determine which were the best teams, why run a
qualifier, or more to the point, if you're going to decide
that certain teams are the best based on season-long
statistics, why not base bids on the same
criteria?

Further, many teams can only be compared to others within
their region, making it very difficult to compare
between different regions of the country and try to
determine the better team. This might suggest trying to
determine regional strengths based large tournaments and
awarding each sectional a number of bids ahead of time, or
perhaps simply awarding bids based on size, but my guess
would be that this would not result in the best teams
playing at nationals.

Nor will any system, quite
frankly. Every team has off days an on days. One thing
that the stats showed from the Mid-Atlantic regional
was that the Princeton B team I was on scored
significantly better than teams that we finished significantly
behind. Does this mean that Princeton B is a
significantly worse team good at running up the score? Or a
very good team that lost a lot of close games it
should have won? Probably a little of each.


Basically, the criteria I would use for determining national
qualifiers would be to try to pick the teams that had the
best chance of winning the tournament, and I assume
that NAQT's formula is their way of trying to do so.
If we want to simply compare quality wins or for
that matter all of the scores, this would be a much
better way to go when ranking within regions but would
be, as mentioned before, almost impossible to use
between regions.

That said, if you want to simply
debate out of the Mid-Atlantic teams whether Maryland or
Princeton (or G.W., I should add) deserves to be highest on
the list, I'd mention the following:

On
records, Maryland and G.W. were both 9-4, and Princeton B
was 6-7. Clear advantage to Maryland and G.W.


As for statistics, Princeton was clearly best of the
three in both points per tossup and points per bonus,
and by enough that errors due to moderators should
have had little effect (and our second-largest win was
in the slowest room, so I doubt we took advantage of
fast moderators enough elsewhere to be clearly ahead
in balance - probably all these things balance out
over the course of the tournament). Maryland and G.W.
were within the margin of error on points per tossup,
with Maryland doing significantly better on bonii than
G.W.

As for quality wins, Princeton B had the only win
over winners Princeton A, 400-350. I'm not sure which
teams other than Princeton A beat Virginia, though I
believe for their two other losses they were down to 2
players because of car troubles. I know that Princeton B
lost to G.W. A (by 15), Maryland (by 125), and
Pittsburgh(by 10) among others, though I don't have Maryland's
results or G.W.'s results in those games. (I'd guess they
both about split them to end up with the records they
did).

Incidentally, in this discussion you should include Penn, which
had an 8-5 record and very good statistics if we're
only going to include records. I'm not sure which of
the top teams they beat.

As for bad losses, I
again don't have the numbers from the others, but the
team with the worst record that we lost to was Rutgers
(by 65). 

[Continued]

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