Re: A little thought experiment (3/3)

Formula = P/20 + (FS * WLR * max(P/20)), where
max(P/20) is the greatest number of P/20 across all
sectionals. [This means that an undefeated team in the
strongest field will earn as many "rating points" as the
team with the most points per 20 tossups.]

This
does lead to the conclusion that under a different
weighting system, Maryland would have received an automatic
bid, and my school (MIT), would have been placed
second on the wait list--the same results that you have.
Williams (third place in our region, ahead of MIT) would
have then essentially received MIT's bid. [Again,
however, because of the small number of games in the NE
round robin, I think teams were penalized somewhat more
than in the MA.]

Note that while Maryland is
now ahead of Princeton and GW, they are still behind
Penn, which finished a game behind you. This, however,
is a natural outcome of the fact that the margin
which Penn outscored Maryland (294 P/20 to 238 P/20) is
much greater than the difference in records (.615 to
.692, in Maryland's favor). One would have to weight
win-loss record twice as much as per-tossup statistics in
order to justify Maryland's moving ahead of
Penn.

So what is the point of all of this? Basically, it
says that win-loss record alone cannot solely work as
a criterion, as Mr. Hillemann has pointed out,
account for the rankings, because it is too insensitive
to the structure of tournaments, and because it does
not allow for easy comparison between regions. But,
combining them with per-tossup statistics does allow teams
that lost one close match to move ahead in the
rankings--reflecting the notion that teams should not be punished for
a small "statistical fluke." 

--AEI

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