WWTBAM Callback Odds

Brian said: 
I once determined that you should
have "roughly" a 1/18 chance of getting a call back if
you qualify. I have qualified 23 times, and never
eceived a call back. Is this par for the course?


Where did you get this number from? I calculated
(though i ignored the effect of people not being
reachable during their callback and being passed over) of
like 1/300. As I do math, this is certainly wrong.
Someone else suggested 1/50 a while back. For the new
game rules (revised today, apparently, though I don't
know what the precise changes are besides the move to
five questions) on the website, it says they expect
4000 correct answers/day, and will select 500 of those
to put on the list of people to call. I don't know
what the 500 means, though; something earlier (in the
last version) said 40 people are called to play a
semifinal, and perhaps they call the first 40 that answer of
these 500 people, but I don't know if the 40 is still
relevant. But 4000/18 is something like 220, and I'd be
surprised if they made that many calls daily, so I think
your number is (at least currently) right.
And for
the record, i've qualified a few dozen times, but
never got a call back (I got on the show through an
audition).

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