<<The question appears to be one of
choosing a "baseline:" do you go with the "actual" loss
(in this case, the -5 and the 40 your opponents
score,
for a total of 45), or do you include the extra
potential loss (the 40 you would have earned with a right
answer)?
Personally, I prefer the latter, if only because it deals
with what "is.">>
For purposes of whether
a protest matters, general we take what is possible
rather than what is certain, thus, it is more sensible
to consider the possible points and the
probabilities of getting all or some of those
points.
Keep in mind that, so far, we are dealing with
simplified cases, that do not include such things as power
tossups.