For those who saw most of these Michigan kids last summer, I guess I should say I'm not terribly surprised. At least the HS nationals data from both PACE NSC and NAQT HSCT* have shown a major shift in competitiveness to the northern part of the country (DC area, PA/OH and Michigan) over the last four or so years. The fact that all these kids happen to want to go to Michigan... well, I don't think we ought to complain being at Duke; in fact, I think we understand. :) As for adjusting for difficulty, I'm sure Allison and the rest of the CWRU folks can answer regarding the questions themselves, but the guidelines we wrote out did have specific goals for scoring for both teams: 250 ppg combined scoring at Penn Bowl, ACF Regionals, or NAQT Sectionals difficulty for BUTT, 250 ppg combined at Ann B Davis/TRASH Regionals difficulty (cf <a href=http://www.cwru.edu/orgs/trivia/undergrads/ target=new>http://www.cwru.edu/orgs/trivia/undergrads/</a> ). So if your calculations (and Allison's datakeeping) are correct, that wasn't too far off the mark. If the bar was set a bit high, then it could have been discussed when we were setting the guidelines a year ago. * Please note I'm not discounting the ASCN or QU nationals for which the "power" has been more aligned to the south/southwest, but in terms of strength of field and question challenge that most closely approximates college play, both PACE and NAQT are better indicators here.
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