Re: On Unpredictability II (was Re:Score

<<4) Writing to explicitly prevent an upset
is as bogus a proposition as writing to explicitly
cause one. In either case, you are playing
favorites.>>

I've heard this argument often, and I've never been
able to put my finger on what I found wrong with it.
Now, I think I've found the words.

An "upset"
as in the team less expected to win pulling out the
victory is not bad in and of itself. An "upset" as in the
team with less academic knowledge winning is
definitely bad.

Writing to cause of prevent an upset
of the former
kind is of course bad, but short of
deliberatly putting in hoses so the more aggressive team will
hand over tossups, or writing to the sub-subcategories
that one team knows cold and scheduling the match for
that packet, it can't really happen.

However,
in the second sense, EVERY packet should be written
"to explicitly prevent an upset." Purposely putting
in overly difficult questions, including more than a
few from someone's pet "canon expansion" project
effectively shortens the game. If there are too few tossups,
the likelihood of random chance causing the
less-knowledgeable team to win increases. Second-century Bulgarian
literature isn't considered a waste of time just because it
hasn't come up before; it's considered so because no one
knows it.

In the case of sectionals, I think we
have something entirely different at play: the effects
of several dozen writers of widely varying quality,
a plethora of subcategories and unfinished packets
(due to the clock) playing havoc with whatever
distribution there is, and a hefty dose of general knowledge
and trash. It's no surprise that there should be a
650-point swing between two games with that going
on.

--M.W.

P.S.- No result in a Pitt-Case game can really be
considered an "upset" in either sense of the word, since
we've gone to the last tossup on two occasions this
year, and we've both beaten each other by several
hundred in other games. Who the favorite is and who has
more knowledge is anyone's guess.

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.4.0: Sat 12 Feb 2022 12:30:45 AM EST EST